Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo noted earlier this week for headset, claiming production fell to 400,000 or 450,000 units, compared to the previous market consensus north of 700,000. This followed a related report Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman said in his speech Demand for Vision Pro demos has “waned”, although sales have slowed significantly in some locations.
Naturally, this led to much consternation and hand-wringing among Apple fans who feared that the headset that was supposed to change VR forever might not have the power they expected. However, before everyone starts clutching their pearls, I want to let you in on a secret: It doesn’t really matter how many headphones Apple sells.
First, let’s talk about production numbers. 400,000 or 800,000 or something in between? In January, the same Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that the company sold between 160,000 and 180,000 units during the sales period. how much was about 60,000 to 80,000. But if we go even further back to last July, Apple is asking the supplier to produce fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, while other sources cited two people who said the number was closer to 150,000. Now obviously the numbers are subject to change over time as Apple responds to feedback and interest from developers and the public. Regardless, trying to estimate the exact number of devices that will be produced is very difficult, especially for an eye-catching and innovative product. (and according to some even before that ).
Again, let’s take that 400,000 number and see how far it goes. Not including accessories (some of which are very important, especially if the owner wears glasses), the Vision Pro retails for $3,500. Rough napkin math shows that Apple is looking at roughly $1.4 billion in sales. That’s a pretty big number, and for many other companies it would represent a banner year. But this is Apple we’re talking about — it’s in . And it was considered a down year. So we’re talking less than one percent of the company’s total revenue, which is basically a rounding error for Apple’s finances.
That number seems less impressive when you consider all the research and development that went into creating the Vision Pro. Apple is always tight-lipped when it comes to disclosing how much money it puts into various departments. But if we look at Meta, another major player in VR, we can get a better idea of what Apple’s VR budget might look like. according to Business Insiderbased on an analysis of regulatory findings, Since the beginning of 2019. That’s a serious chunk of change, and it’s enough to cause some confusion among Meta stocks and investors.
But all these numbers are just noise. Analysts are so busy focusing on quarterly numbers that they like to look at these things to help predict company growth that they often miss the bigger picture. Depending on who you ask, Apple has More than any other company in the world sitting in the bank above $165 billion. And with recent reports claiming that Apple has I’d argue that the company might want to redouble its headphone efforts.
That’s because the Vision Pro could be the first step toward a platform that, like the original iPhone in 2007, could reshape the company’s entire trajectory. It was clear from the beginning that Apple’s first phone would have a huge impact. But when people look back, they never remember the first year of iPhone sales only about 1.4 million units. Sure, that’s over 400,000, but that was for a significantly cheaper device and a drop in the bucket compared to the HUNDREDS of millions Apple has sold lately. These numbers were meaningless.
Vision Pro is from Apple Field of dreams a device for virtual reality, spatial computing, or whatever you want to call the category that includes head-mounted displays. Apple should have made it so developers had access to actual hardware to test their software. Apple should have created it to be a platform for people to download apps. (If you’ll recall, the original App Store didn’t do its own estimation until July 2008, more than a year after the OG iPhone went on sale. .) Apple should have set it up to plant a flag to avoid completely giving first mover advantage to Meta or anyone else.
While I think the Vision Pro is a glorified development kit (it was announced at WWDC after all), there are features that evoke the magical feeling I had when I first used an iPhone. The Vision Pro has perhaps the best optics I’ve seen in any headset, including enterprise models costing more than $3,500. It also has the best eye tracking I’ve ever experienced, and it makes navigating through menus and apps incredibly intuitive. It just kind of works. As my colleague Devindra mentioned in a recent talk, it is slowly but surely improving.
Like Apple’s first phone, the Vision Pro isn’t without its problems. It is heavy and not very comfortable during long sessions. Its wired battery pack isn’t the most elegant solution for power supply. Its front visor is prone to cracking, it still feels difficult to type on, and there aren’t enough bespoke apps to make it an essential part of your everyday tech kit. But these are solvable problems, and there’s a foundation that Apple can replicate. Even in its infancy, the Vision Pro brings enough to make hundreds of thousands of people (or developers) buy a device that makes no practical sense.
The focus should be on what improvements or additions Apple can make in the future, not how many units Apple has (or hasn’t) produced. So don’t let analysts or other noisemakers convince you otherwise.
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